Every call we make, scored against something that isn’t us.

Each call names an external source, a threshold and a resolution date before the outcome is known. The score is published whether it flatters us or not — a record that only reports its wins is not a record.

How we forecast, and what this first score can and cannot show

Each call’s probability is that country’s own long-run rate, re-weighted toward its recent behaviour. The base rate we score against is that same long-run rate. So this first cohort is not a test of whether we understand the world — it is a narrower and more answerable question: does weighting recent behaviour beat the long-run average? A negative score means it does not, and that is a valid result we expect to publish. It is also why we withhold any skill number until three independent resolution batches exist: one fortnight cannot separate a forecasting method from the weather it happened to land in.

We have stopped issuing censorship calls, and this is why

Until 23 August, each censorship call was priced by weighting a country’s recent behaviour against its long-run rate. A walk-forward backtest then measured that weighting at −7.1% skill on this domain — worse than using the long-run rate alone — so the weight was set to zero.

That correction was right, and it had a consequence we did not act on for six days. With the weight at zero the stated probability is the long-run rate, and the long-run rate is what we score against. Every censorship call issued since has had a skill of exactly zero — not approximately zero, and not because the forecast was poor, but by arithmetic. A number divided by itself.

So we have stopped issuing them, under a rule that is not specific to censorship: a generator that cannot state a probability different from its own base rate issues nothing, unless it is a declared calibration harness whose entire purpose is to sit on climatology. State a claim, or be a control.

The censorship calls already on the book are untouched. They were made, and they resolve as made — including the 39 due on 5 September. What stops is adding more. We do not have a replacement generator yet, and we will not issue censorship calls again until we have one that is capable of being wrong.

Some calls come due against evidence we never got

OONI is a volunteer network, and its coverage is thinnest in precisely the places where running a measurement tool is most dangerous — so the countries we most want to be right about are the ones we have least evidence for.

Before a call is scored, we ask whether we looked hard enough to be entitled to an answer. A censorship call is scored only if OONI observed that country on at least half the days in the call’s window, across enough measurements that one volunteer’s network conditions cannot decide a public verdict. Below that line the call is marked unresolvable: it stays on the book, it carries the reason, and it is excluded from every number on this page.

The rule cuts one way only. A confirmed block we did observe resolves the call as a hit no matter how thin the coverage — seeing something happen is evidence that it happened. It is the absence of a block that needs a well-observed window to mean anything.

Unresolvable is not the same as void. A call is void when our own criterion was unsound — our mistake, withdrawn by us. It is unresolvable when the world did not supply enough evidence to judge either way. Neither is ever scored, and neither is ever deleted.

We are stating this before the first calls resolve, because a rule published afterwards is not a rule — it is an explanation.

Scored separately, on purpose

Each domain has its own resolver, its own base-rate estimator and its own dependence structure. Pooling them would produce one number dominated by whichever domain happened to write more rows, which is not a track record.

Resolved by someone else

Nothing here is scored against a NexusWatch number. That distinction is the whole product: an index that grades its own forecasts can accumulate rows forever without ever being wrong. One domain is deliberately unglamorous: USGS seismicity windows, stated at their own climatology. They are a calibration harness — a domain where the right answer is computable, so a broken scoring pipeline cannot hide — and they are excluded from the claim counts above.

What we are currently claiming

Ordered by how far each call sits from that country’s own base rate — the ones at the top are where we are actually saying something rather than restating how often it happens anyway.

UGUGX depreciates 2.02% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4336.26.39% (+13pts) UGUGX depreciates 2.02% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4113.32.38% (+13pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81548.38% (+12pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.91% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4166.17.38% (+12pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.80737.38% (+12pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.74391.37% (+12pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.83419.37% (+12pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.89% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4126.43.37% (+12pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.72655.36% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.77493.36% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.78792.36% (+11pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.83% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4100.68.37% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.71107.35% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.79932.36% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.78797.36% (+11pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.55% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.7231.36% (+11pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.60% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4022.11.37% (+11pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.61% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4016.57.36% (+11pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.83% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4040.74.36% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81064.35% (+11pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81473.35% (+11pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.74% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4060.88.36% (+10pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.76% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4029.72.36% (+10pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.60% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4004.88.36% (+10pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.63% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3999.60.35% (+10pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.52% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.6826.36% (+10pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.67% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3999.30.35% (+10pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81292.34% (+10pts) UGUGX depreciates 1.67% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3987.29.35% (+10pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.44% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.6316.36% (+10pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.52% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.6923.35% (+10pts) MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81526.34% (+10pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.39% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4419.35% (+10pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.7340.34% (+9pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.39% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4465.34% (+9pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.32% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4655.35% (+9pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.39% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4571.33% (+9pts) MXMXN depreciates 1.24% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4668.34% (+9pts) IQIQD depreciates 0.84% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1517.42.34% (+9pts) CZCZK depreciates 1.22% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 21.6566.33% (+8pts)

54 calls we were wrong about

Two defects in our own instruments published these as misses when the evidence says otherwise: the collector stored one hour of each day instead of the whole day, and the resolver scored a call before the last day of its window had any evidence at all. Both are fixed. The verdicts below are what we published and we have not rewritten them — the corrected reading sits beside each one. Every number on this page still counts the call as it was published.

VNOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in VN within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED VEOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in VE within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED UZOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in UZ within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED KEOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in KE within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED EGOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in EG within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED CUOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in CU within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED BDOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in BD within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED AFOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in AF within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED VNOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in VN within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED UZOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in UZ within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED KEOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in KE within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED EGOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in EG within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED CUOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in CU within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED BDOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in BD within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED AFOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in AF within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED VNOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in VN within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED UZOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in UZ within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED KEOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in KE within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED EGOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in EG within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED CUOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in CU within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED BDOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in BD within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED AFOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in AF within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED VNOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in VN within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED UZOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in UZ within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED KEOONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in KE within 14 days. — published MISS, evidence says HITCORRECTED

25 of 54 shown here; the rest are in the full book, each with the evidence that corrects it.

Including where we were wrong

TRTRY depreciates 0.80% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 49.3375. — said 20%■HIT UZUZS depreciates 1.29% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 11855.2. — said 20%■HIT TWTWD depreciates 0.84% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 31.9644. — said 23%■HIT PHPHP depreciates 1.28% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 62.8267. — said 24%■HIT UAUAH depreciates 0.71% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 44.9071. — said 25%■HIT MXMXN depreciates 1.13% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 18.4067. — said 33%■HIT UGUGX depreciates 1.60% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4027.14. — said 35%■HIT MAMAD depreciates 1.50% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.81749. — said 34%□MISS BFXOF depreciates 1.16% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 585.526. — said 32%□MISS CMXAF depreciates 1.16% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 585.526. — said 32%□MISS TNTND depreciates 0.97% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3.00373. — said 32%□MISS PLPLN depreciates 1.66% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3.91513. — said 32%□MISS NZNZD depreciates 2.07% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1.78177. — said 31%□MISS LYLYD depreciates 0.77% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 6.42825. — said 30%□MISS RORON depreciates 1.87% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4.76644. — said 30%□MISS PEPEN depreciates 1.21% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3.43356. — said 29%□MISS RWRWF depreciates 0.37% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1476.30. — said 28%□MISS ZAZAR depreciates 1.95% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 16.5138. — said 28%□MISS YEYER depreciates 0.35% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 236.356. — said 28%□MISS VNVND depreciates 0.40% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 25886.4. — said 28%□MISS MMMMK depreciates 0.32% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 2099.63. — said 28%□MISS SESEK depreciates 2.13% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.99470. — said 27%□MISS PKPKR depreciates 0.30% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 277.206. — said 27%□MISS SSSSP depreciates 7.07% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 5855.64. — said 27%□MISS SGSGD depreciates 0.65% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1.28075. — said 26%□MISS MZMZN depreciates 0.42% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 63.8707. — said 26%□MISS THTHB depreciates 1.34% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 33.5341. — said 26%□MISS KWKWD depreciates 0.37% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 0.310151. — said 25%□MISS ZWZWL depreciates 1.11% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 26.6875. — said 25%□MISS TZTZS depreciates 0.62% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 2635.27. — said 25%□MISS NONOK depreciates 2.16% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.55829. — said 25%□MISS NPNPR depreciates 1.11% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 155.137. — said 24%□MISS KZKZT depreciates 1.59% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 453.355. — said 24%□MISS SDSDG depreciates 19.89% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 458.677. — said 24%□MISS MYMYR depreciates 1.18% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 4.08503. — said 23%□MISS SYSYP depreciates 2.83% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 121.770. — said 22%□MISS RURUB depreciates 3.75% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 85.0286. — said 22%□MISS NGNGN depreciates 0.77% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1330.17. — said 22%□MISS LKLKR depreciates 1.17% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 330.545. — said 21%□MISS VEVES depreciates 7.04% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 876.798. — said 20%□MISS

The brief opens with this ledger, every morning. Read the latest issue · Subscribe · first call recorded 2026-08-22

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.