Call #2963 · PL · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

PLN depreciates 1.39% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3.79125.

Made 2026-09-22, resolving 2026-10-06 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%

what we said

stated on 2026-09-22, before the window opened

calls table · probability

25%

how often it happens anyway

PL's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it

calls table · base_rate

HIT

resolved 2026-10-06

peak depreciation 3.07% (stored as basis points)

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (3.79125) by at least 1.39%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-22.

History

Every PL currency call

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.