Call #5003 · PL · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

PLN depreciates 1.66% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3.88163.

Made 2026-10-22, resolving 2026-11-05 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

33%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-22, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
PL's own base rate at issue — we sit +8pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-05
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (3.881628) by at least 1.66%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-22.

History

Every PL currency call

2026-10-24call #513733% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507033% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-21call #493633% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #486933% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #480233% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #473533% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #466833% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460133% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #453433% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #446733% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440032% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #433332% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #426631% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4185said 31% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4118said 31% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4051said 31% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3983said 30% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3915said 29% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3848said 29% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3781said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.