Call #2859 · AZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

AZN depreciates 0.26% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1.70521.

Made 2026-09-21, resolving 2026-10-05 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

30%

what we said

stated on 2026-09-21, before the window opened

calls table · probability

25%

how often it happens anyway

AZ's own base rate at issue — we sit +6pts from it

calls table · base_rate

OPEN

not yet resolved

resolves 2026-10-05

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1.705209) by at least 0.26%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-21.

History

Every AZ currency call

2026-09-20call #279429% · resolves 2026-10-04 2026-09-18call #266528% · resolves 2026-10-02 2026-09-17call #260028% · resolves 2026-10-01 2026-09-16call #253528% · resolves 2026-09-30 2026-09-15call #247028% · resolves 2026-09-29 2026-09-14call #240528% · resolves 2026-09-28 2026-09-13call #234027% · resolves 2026-09-27

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.