Call #4629 · AZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

AZN depreciates 0.35% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1.70013.

Made 2026-10-17, resolving 2026-10-31 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

32%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-17, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
AZ's own base rate at issue — we sit +6pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-31
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1.700127) by at least 0.35%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-17.

History

Every AZ currency call

2026-10-24call #509828% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #503128% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #496429% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #489730% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #483030% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #476330% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #469631% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-16call #456232% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #449533% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #442833% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #436134% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #429432% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #422732% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4146said 32% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4079said 32% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4011said 32% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3943said 32% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3876said 32% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3809said 32% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3742said 32% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.