Call #5099 · BD · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

BDT depreciates 0.30% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 123.714.

Made 2026-10-24, resolving 2026-11-07 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-24, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
BD's own base rate at issue — we sit +5pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-07
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (123.714253) by at least 0.3%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-24.

History

Every BD currency call

2026-10-23call #503228% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #496528% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #489830% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #483129% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #476429% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #469730% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #463029% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #456329% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #449628% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #442928% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #436229% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #429529% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #422830% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4147said 30% · HIT 2026-10-09call #4080said 30% · HIT 2026-10-08call #4012said 30% · HIT 2026-10-07call #3944said 30% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3877said 30% · HIT 2026-10-05call #3810said 29% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3743said 29% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.