Call #5079 · TH · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

THB depreciates 1.32% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 33.7291.

Made 2026-10-23, resolving 2026-11-06 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-23, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
TH's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-06
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (33.729084) by at least 1.32%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-23.

History

Every TH currency call

2026-10-24call #514624% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-22call #501225% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494525% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487825% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #481125% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474426% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467727% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #461025% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #454325% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447626% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440926% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434226% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427526% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4194said 26% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4127said 26% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4060said 24% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3992said 24% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3924said 26% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3857said 26% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3790said 24% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.