Call #4904 · CO · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

COP depreciates 3.87% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 3153.77.

Made 2026-10-21, resolving 2026-11-04 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

27%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-21, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
CO's own base rate at issue — we sit +2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-04
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (3153.773599) by at least 3.87%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-21.

History

Every CO currency call

2026-10-24call #510527% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #503827% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #497127% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-20call #483728% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #477028% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #470329% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #463629% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #456928% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #450229% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #443530% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #436830% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #430131% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #423431% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4153said 32% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4086said 32% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4018said 33% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3950said 33% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3883said 32% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3816said 33% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3749said 33% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.