Call #4845 · HU · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

HUF depreciates 2.16% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 323.565.

Made 2026-10-20, resolving 2026-11-03 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

27%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-20, before the window opened
calls table · probability
24%
how often it happens anyway
HU's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-03
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (323.565023) by at least 2.16%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-20.

History

Every HU currency call

2026-10-24call #511327% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504627% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #497927% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #491227% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-19call #477827% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #471128% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464428% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #457729% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451029% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #444329% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #437629% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #430929% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #424229% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4161said 29% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4094said 28% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4027said 28% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3959said 27% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3891said 28% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3824said 27% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3757said 26% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.