Call #4841 · ET · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

ETB depreciates 0.92% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 161.808.

Made 2026-10-20, resolving 2026-11-03 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-20, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
ET's own base rate at issue — we sit -3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-03
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (161.808233) by at least 0.92%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-20.

History

Every ET currency call

2026-10-24call #510923% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504223% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #497523% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #490823% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-19call #477423% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #470724% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464024% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #457322% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #450622% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #443922% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #437222% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #430523% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #423823% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4157said 23% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4090said 23% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4022said 23% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3954said 23% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3887said 23% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3820said 23% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3753said 22% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.