Call #4815 · TZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

TZS depreciates 0.62% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 2632.13.

Made 2026-10-19, resolving 2026-11-02 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-19, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
TZ's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-11-02
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (2632.127793) by at least 0.62%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-19.

History

Every TZ currency call

2026-10-24call #515023% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #508323% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #501624% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494923% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #488223% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-18call #474824% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #468125% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #461425% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #454726% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #448026% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #441325% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434625% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427925% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4198said 25% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4131said 23% · HIT 2026-10-08call #4064said 24% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3996said 24% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3928said 24% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3861said 24% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3794said 24% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.