Call #4593 · MZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

MZN depreciates 0.42% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 63.7363.

Made 2026-10-16, resolving 2026-10-30 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

26%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-16, before the window opened
calls table · probability
24%
how often it happens anyway
MZ's own base rate at issue — we sit +2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-30
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (63.736342) by at least 0.42%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-16.

History

Every MZ currency call

2026-10-24call #512927% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #506227% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #499527% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492827% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #486127% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #479427% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #472727% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #466025% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-15call #452626% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #445926% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #439226% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #432526% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425826% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4177said 27% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4110said 27% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4043said 27% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3975said 27% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3907said 27% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3840said 27% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3773said 27% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.