Call #4546 · TW · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

TWD depreciates 0.84% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 32.2076.

Made 2026-10-15, resolving 2026-10-29 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-15, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
TW's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-29
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (32.207621) by at least 0.84%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-15.

History

Every TW currency call

2026-10-24call #514929% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #508228% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #501528% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494828% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #488128% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #481427% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474726% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #468026% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #461325% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-14call #447924% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #441223% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434523% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427823% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4197said 23% · HIT 2026-10-09call #4130said 23% · HIT 2026-10-08call #4063said 23% · HIT 2026-10-07call #3995said 24% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3927said 23% · HIT 2026-10-05call #3860said 23% · HIT 2026-10-04call #3793said 23% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.