Call #4521 · LY · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

LYD depreciates 0.76% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 6.42852.

Made 2026-10-15, resolving 2026-10-29 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

31%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-15, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
LY's own base rate at issue — we sit +5pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-29
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (6.428522) by at least 0.76%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-15.

History

Every LY currency call

2026-10-24call #512429% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #505729% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #499029% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492329% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485629% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478930% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #472230% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #465530% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458830% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-14call #445431% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #438730% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #432030% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425330% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4172said 30% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4105said 29% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4038said 29% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3970said 28% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3902said 29% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3835said 28% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3768said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.