Call #4453 · LK · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

LKR depreciates 1.16% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 330.802.

Made 2026-10-14, resolving 2026-10-28 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

21%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-14, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
LK's own base rate at issue — we sit -4pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-28
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (330.8016) by at least 1.16%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-14.

History

Every LK currency call

2026-10-24call #512320% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #505620% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498920% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492220% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485520% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478820% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #472121% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #465421% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458721% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #452021% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-13call #438621% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431921% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425221% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4171said 21% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4104said 21% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4037said 21% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3969said 21% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3901said 22% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3834said 21% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3767said 21% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.