Call #4444 · ID · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

IDR depreciates 1.43% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 17917.9.

Made 2026-10-14, resolving 2026-10-28 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

25%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-14, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
ID's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-28
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (17917.900437) by at least 1.43%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-14.

History

Every ID currency call

2026-10-24call #511424% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504724% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498025% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #491325% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #484624% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #477924% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #471225% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464525% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #457824% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451124% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-13call #437725% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431024% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #424324% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4162said 24% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4095said 24% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4028said 24% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3960said 24% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3892said 24% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3825said 24% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3758said 24% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.