Call #4419 · CM · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

XAF depreciates 1.17% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 587.201.

Made 2026-10-13, resolving 2026-10-27 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

31%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-13, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
CM's own base rate at issue — we sit +6pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-27
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (587.20136) by at least 1.17%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-13.

History

Every CM currency call

2026-10-24call #515634% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #508934% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #502234% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #495532% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #488832% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #482132% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #475432% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #468733% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #462033% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #455333% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #448632% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-12call #435232% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #428531% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4204said 32% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4137said 31% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4070said 30% · MISS 2026-10-07call #4002said 30% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3934said 30% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3867said 29% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3800said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.