Call #4303 · DZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

DZD depreciates 0.64% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 134.662.

Made 2026-10-12, resolving 2026-10-26 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

28%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-12, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
DZ's own base rate at issue — we sit +4pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-26
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (134.661736) by at least 0.64%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-12.

History

Every DZ currency call

2026-10-24call #510728% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504029% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #497329% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #490628% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #483928% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #477228% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #470528% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #463828% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #457129% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #450429% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #443729% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #437028% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-11call #423628% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4155said 28% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4088said 28% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4020said 28% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3952said 28% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3885said 28% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3818said 28% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3751said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.