Call #4159 · GB · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

GBP depreciates 1.19% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 0.755847.

Made 2026-10-10, resolving 2026-10-24 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

27%

what we said

stated on 2026-10-10, before the window opened

calls table · probability

25%

how often it happens anyway

GB's own base rate at issue — we sit +2pts from it

calls table · base_rate

MISS

resolved 2026-10-24

peak depreciation 0.10% (stored as basis points)

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (0.755847) by at least 1.19%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-10.

History

Every GB currency call

2026-10-24call #511127% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504427% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #497727% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #491027% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #484328% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #477628% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #470928% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464228% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #457527% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #450827% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #444127% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #437427% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #430727% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #424027% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-09call #4092said 27% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4024said 27% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3956said 27% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3889said 27% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3822said 27% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3755said 26% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.