Call #4142 · AF · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

AFN depreciates 1.67% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 64.8274.

Made 2026-10-10, resolving 2026-10-24 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-10, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
AF's own base rate at issue — we sit -2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-24
peak depreciation 0.23% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (64.827376) by at least 1.67%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-10.

History

Every AF currency call

2026-10-24call #509421% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #502721% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #496021% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #489321% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #482620% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #475920% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #469221% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #462521% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #455820% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #449121% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #442421% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #435722% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #429023% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #422323% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-09call #4075said 24% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4007said 24% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3939said 25% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3872said 26% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3805said 26% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3738said 26% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.