Call #4132 · UA · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

UAH depreciates 0.71% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 44.8502.

Made 2026-10-09, resolving 2026-10-23 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

25%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-09, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
UA's own base rate at issue — we sit +0pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-23
peak depreciation 0.56% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (44.850201) by at least 0.71%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-09.

History

Every UA currency call

2026-10-24call #515124% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #508426% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #501726% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #495027% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #488325% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #481625% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474925% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #468225% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #461525% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #454825% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #448125% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #441425% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434725% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #428025% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4199said 25% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4065said 25% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3997said 25% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3929said 25% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3862said 25% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3795said 24% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.