Call #4123 · SE · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

SEK depreciates 2.15% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.98823.

Made 2026-10-09, resolving 2026-10-23 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

27%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-09, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
SE's own base rate at issue — we sit +2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-23
peak depreciation 0.43% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (9.988226) by at least 2.15%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-09.

History

Every SE currency call

2026-10-24call #514229% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507529% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #500829% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494129% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487429% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #480729% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474029% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467329% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460630% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #453930% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447230% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440527% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #433827% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427127% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4190said 27% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4056said 27% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3988said 27% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3920said 27% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3853said 26% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3786said 26% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.