Call #41 · AR · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

ARS depreciates 2.08% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1497.45.

Made 2026-08-23, resolving 2026-09-06 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

18%

what we said

stated on 2026-08-23, before the window opened

calls table · probability

28%

how often it happens anyway

AR's own base rate at issue — we sit -10pts from it

calls table · base_rate

MISS

resolved 2026-09-06

peak depreciation 1.12% (stored as basis points)

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1497.4528) by at least 2.08%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-08-23.

History

Every AR currency call

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.