Call #4059 · SY · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

SYP depreciates 2.84% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 121.788.

Made 2026-10-08, resolving 2026-10-22 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

24%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-08, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
SY's own base rate at issue — we sit -1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-22
peak depreciation 0.08% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (121.788134) by at least 2.84%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-08.

History

Every SY currency call

2026-10-24call #514521% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507821% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #501121% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494420% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487720% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #481021% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474321% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467620% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460920% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #454221% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447522% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440822% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434122% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427423% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4193said 23% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4126said 23% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3991said 25% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3923said 25% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3856said 25% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3789said 26% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.