Call #3993 · TN · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

TND depreciates 0.96% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 2.97521.

Made 2026-10-07, resolving 2026-10-21 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-07, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
TN's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
HIT
resolved 2026-10-21
peak depreciation 1.20% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (2.975208) by at least 0.96%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-07.

History

Every TN currency call

2026-10-24call #514734% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #508034% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #501334% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494632% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487933% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #481233% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #474532% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467832% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #461133% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #454433% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447732% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #441031% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #434332% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427631% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4195said 30% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4128said 29% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4061said 28% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3925said 28% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3858said 27% · HIT 2026-10-04call #3791said 28% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.