Call #3919 · SD · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

SDG depreciates 19.89% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 453.808.

Made 2026-10-06, resolving 2026-10-20 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

26%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-06, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
SD's own base rate at issue — we sit +1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-20
peak depreciation 19.88% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (453.808274) by at least 19.89%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-06.

History

Every SD currency call

2026-10-24call #514125% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507425% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #500725% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #494025% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487324% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #480624% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #473925% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467225% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460523% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #453824% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447124% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440425% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #433724% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #427024% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4189said 25% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4122said 25% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4055said 25% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3987said 25% · HIT 2026-10-05call #3852said 26% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3785said 27% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.