Call #3896 · JP · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

JPY depreciates 0.99% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 157.982.

Made 2026-10-06, resolving 2026-10-20 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

27%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-06, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
JP's own base rate at issue — we sit +1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-20
peak depreciation 0.36% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (157.982128) by at least 0.99%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-06.

History

Every JP currency call

2026-10-24call #511827% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #505127% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498427% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #491727% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485028% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478328% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #471628% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464928% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458227% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451527% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #444828% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #438128% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431426% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #424726% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4166said 26% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4099said 27% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4032said 27% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3964said 27% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3829said 27% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3762said 27% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.