Call #3868 · BF · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

XOF depreciates 1.03% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 583.031.

Made 2026-10-05, resolving 2026-10-19 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-05, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
BF's own base rate at issue — we sit +4pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-19
peak depreciation 0.72% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (583.030678) by at least 1.03%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-05.

History

Every BF currency call

2026-10-24call #515734% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #509034% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #502334% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #495632% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #488932% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #482232% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #475532% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #468833% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #462133% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #455433% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #448732% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #442031% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #435332% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #428631% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4205said 32% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4138said 31% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4071said 30% · MISS 2026-10-07call #4003said 30% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3935said 30% · MISS 2026-10-04call #3801said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.