Call #3832 · KW · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

KWD depreciates 0.36% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 0.309182.

Made 2026-10-05, resolving 2026-10-19 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-05, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
KW's own base rate at issue — we sit -2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
HIT
resolved 2026-10-19
peak depreciation 0.68% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (0.309182) by at least 0.36%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-05.

History

Every KW currency call

2026-10-24call #512127% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #505427% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498727% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492026% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485325% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478625% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #471927% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #465227% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458526% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451827% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #445126% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #438425% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431725% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425026% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4169said 25% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4102said 24% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4035said 23% · HIT 2026-10-07call #3967said 24% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3899said 24% · HIT 2026-10-04call #3765said 23% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.