Call #3804 · ZW · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

ZWL depreciates 1.22% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 26.7653.

Made 2026-10-04, resolving 2026-10-18 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-04, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
ZW's own base rate at issue — we sit -3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-18
peak depreciation 0.02% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (26.7653) by at least 1.22%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-04.

History

Every ZW currency call

2026-10-24call #516023% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #509324% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #502624% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #495924% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #489224% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #482524% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #475824% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #469124% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #462425% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #455725% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #449025% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #442325% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #435625% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #428925% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4208said 25% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4141said 23% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4074said 23% · MISS 2026-10-07call #4006said 23% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3938said 23% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3871said 23% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.