Call #3717 · RW · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

RWF depreciates 0.38% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1478.51.

Made 2026-10-03, resolving 2026-10-17 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-03, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
RW's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-17
peak depreciation 0.07% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1478.511152) by at least 0.38%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-03.

History

Every RW currency call

2026-10-24call #514027% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507327% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #500627% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #493927% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487227% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #480527% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #473828% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467127% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460428% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #453728% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #447028% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440328% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #433628% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #426929% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4188said 29% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4121said 29% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4054said 29% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3986said 29% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3918said 29% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3851said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.