Call #3693 · IQ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

IQD depreciates 0.32% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1310.22.

Made 2026-10-03, resolving 2026-10-17 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-10-03, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
IQ's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
HIT
resolved 2026-10-17
peak depreciation 15.82% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1310.218099) by at least 0.32%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-10-03.

History

Every IQ currency call

2026-10-24call #511633% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #504933% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498234% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #491533% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #484833% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478133% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #471433% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #464732% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458032% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451333% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #444632% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #437932% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431231% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #424530% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4164said 30% · HIT 2026-10-09call #4097said 29% · HIT 2026-10-08call #4030said 28% · HIT 2026-10-07call #3962said 28% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3894said 29% · HIT 2026-10-05call #3827said 29% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.