Call #3412 · CH · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

CHF depreciates 1.51% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 0.831749.

Made 2026-09-29, resolving 2026-10-13 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

28%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-29, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
CH's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-13
peak depreciation 0.41% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (0.831749) by at least 1.51%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-29.

History

Every CH currency call

2026-10-24call #510327% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #503627% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #496927% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #490228% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #483528% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #476828% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #470128% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #463429% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #456729% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #450030% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #443330% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #436628% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #429928% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #423228% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4151said 28% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4084said 28% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4016said 28% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3948said 29% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3881said 28% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3814said 27% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.