Call #3409 · BR · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

BRL depreciates 1.84% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 5.20766.

Made 2026-09-29, resolving 2026-10-13 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-29, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
BR's own base rate at issue — we sit -2pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-13
peak depreciation 0.29% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (5.207659) by at least 1.84%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-29.

History

Every BR currency call

2026-10-24call #510023% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #503323% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #496623% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #489923% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #483222% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #476522% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #469822% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #463122% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #456422% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #449722% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #443022% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #436322% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #429621% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #422921% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4148said 21% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4081said 22% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4013said 21% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3945said 21% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3878said 21% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3811said 22% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.