Call #3369 · MX · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

MXN depreciates 0.98% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 17.7355.

Made 2026-09-28, resolving 2026-10-12 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

26%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-28, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
MX's own base rate at issue — we sit +1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
HIT
resolved 2026-10-12
peak depreciation 3.78% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (17.735545) by at least 0.98%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-28.

History

Every MX currency call

2026-10-24call #512735% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #506034% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #499336% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492635% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485934% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #479233% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #472535% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #465834% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #459133% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #452433% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #445733% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #439033% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #432333% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425632% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4175said 31% · HIT 2026-10-09call #4108said 31% · HIT 2026-10-08call #4041said 30% · HIT 2026-10-07call #3973said 30% · HIT 2026-10-06call #3905said 30% · HIT 2026-10-05call #3838said 30% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.