Call #3297 · KZ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

KZT depreciates 1.51% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 443.108.

Made 2026-09-27, resolving 2026-10-11 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

22%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-27, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
KZ's own base rate at issue — we sit -4pts from it
calls table · base_rate
HIT
resolved 2026-10-11
peak depreciation 2.98% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (443.107993) by at least 1.51%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-27.

History

Every KZ currency call

2026-10-24call #512226% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #505526% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #498826% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #492127% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #485427% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #478727% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #472027% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #465326% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #458625% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #451925% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #445225% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #438525% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #431824% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #425123% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4170said 23% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4103said 24% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4036said 23% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3968said 23% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3900said 22% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3833said 22% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.