Call #3247 · RU · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

RUB depreciates 3.85% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 84.2771.

Made 2026-09-26, resolving 2026-10-10 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

26%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-26, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
RU's own base rate at issue — we sit +1pts from it
calls table · base_rate
MISS
resolved 2026-10-10
peak depreciation 1.39% (stored as basis points)
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (84.277075) by at least 3.85%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-26.

History

Every RU currency call

2026-10-24call #513920% · resolves 2026-11-07 2026-10-23call #507220% · resolves 2026-11-06 2026-10-22call #500521% · resolves 2026-11-05 2026-10-21call #493821% · resolves 2026-11-04 2026-10-20call #487121% · resolves 2026-11-03 2026-10-19call #480421% · resolves 2026-11-02 2026-10-18call #473722% · resolves 2026-11-01 2026-10-17call #467022% · resolves 2026-10-31 2026-10-16call #460323% · resolves 2026-10-30 2026-10-15call #453623% · resolves 2026-10-29 2026-10-14call #446923% · resolves 2026-10-28 2026-10-13call #440223% · resolves 2026-10-27 2026-10-12call #433522% · resolves 2026-10-26 2026-10-11call #426822% · resolves 2026-10-25 2026-10-10call #4187said 22% · MISS 2026-10-09call #4120said 22% · MISS 2026-10-08call #4053said 23% · MISS 2026-10-07call #3985said 23% · MISS 2026-10-06call #3917said 23% · MISS 2026-10-05call #3850said 23% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.