Call #3115 · VN · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

VND depreciates 0.39% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 25961.7.

Made 2026-09-24, resolving 2026-10-08 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-24, before the window opened
calls table · probability
23%
how often it happens anyway
VN's own base rate at issue — we sit +0pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-08
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (25961.694126) by at least 0.39%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-24.

History

Every VN currency call

2026-09-23call #304825% · resolves 2026-10-07 2026-09-22call #298124% · resolves 2026-10-06 2026-09-21call #291422% · resolves 2026-10-05 2026-09-20call #284921% · resolves 2026-10-04 2026-09-19call #278419% · resolves 2026-10-03 2026-09-18call #272019% · resolves 2026-10-02 2026-09-17call #265519% · resolves 2026-10-01 2026-09-16call #259020% · resolves 2026-09-30 2026-09-15call #252520% · resolves 2026-09-29 2026-09-14call #246020% · resolves 2026-09-28 2026-09-13call #239520% · resolves 2026-09-27 2026-09-12call #233020% · resolves 2026-09-26 2026-09-11call #226620% · resolves 2026-09-25 2026-09-10call #2202said 21% · HIT 2026-09-09call #2136said 22% · HIT 2026-09-08call #2056said 22% · HIT 2026-09-07call #1990said 22% · HIT 2026-09-06call #1925said 18% · HIT 2026-09-05call #1860said 18% · MISS 2026-09-04call #1795said 21% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.