Call #3078 · JP · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

JPY depreciates 0.92% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 158.127.

Made 2026-09-24, resolving 2026-10-08 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

26%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-24, before the window opened
calls table · probability
26%
how often it happens anyway
JP's own base rate at issue — we sit +0pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-08
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (158.127269) by at least 0.92%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-24.

History

Every JP currency call

2026-09-23call #301125% · resolves 2026-10-07 2026-09-22call #294424% · resolves 2026-10-06 2026-09-21call #287822% · resolves 2026-10-05 2026-09-20call #281322% · resolves 2026-10-04 2026-09-19call #274822% · resolves 2026-10-03 2026-09-18call #268422% · resolves 2026-10-02 2026-09-17call #261922% · resolves 2026-10-01 2026-09-16call #255422% · resolves 2026-09-30 2026-09-15call #248922% · resolves 2026-09-29 2026-09-14call #242423% · resolves 2026-09-28 2026-09-13call #235923% · resolves 2026-09-27 2026-09-12call #229423% · resolves 2026-09-26 2026-09-11call #223023% · resolves 2026-09-25 2026-09-10call #2165said 24% · HIT 2026-09-09call #2099said 25% · HIT 2026-09-08call #2019said 26% · HIT 2026-09-07call #1953said 27% · MISS 2026-09-06call #1888said 26% · MISS 2026-09-05call #1823said 27% · MISS 2026-09-04call #1759said 28% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.