Call #3018 · MA · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

MAD depreciates 1.10% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 9.54745.

Made 2026-09-23, resolving 2026-10-07 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-23, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
MA's own base rate at issue — we sit +4pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-10-07
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (9.547453) by at least 1.1%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-23.

History

Every MA currency call

2026-09-22call #295130% · resolves 2026-10-06 2026-09-21call #288533% · resolves 2026-10-05 2026-09-20call #282032% · resolves 2026-10-04 2026-09-19call #275530% · resolves 2026-10-03 2026-09-18call #269129% · resolves 2026-10-02 2026-09-17call #262629% · resolves 2026-10-01 2026-09-16call #256128% · resolves 2026-09-30 2026-09-15call #249627% · resolves 2026-09-29 2026-09-14call #243127% · resolves 2026-09-28 2026-09-13call #236625% · resolves 2026-09-27 2026-09-12call #230124% · resolves 2026-09-26 2026-09-11call #223723% · resolves 2026-09-25 2026-09-10call #217223% · resolves 2026-09-24 2026-09-09call #2106said 22% · HIT 2026-09-08call #2026said 21% · HIT 2026-09-07call #1960said 20% · HIT 2026-09-06call #1895said 19% · HIT 2026-09-05call #1830said 18% · HIT 2026-09-04call #1766said 17% · HIT 2026-09-03call #1702said 16% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.