Call #3 · BD · Network interference (OONI)

OONI records at least 1 confirmed website or app blocking event in BD within 14 days.

Made 2026-08-22, resolving 2026-09-05 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

32%

what we said

stated on 2026-08-22, before the window opened

calls table · probability

50%

how often it happens anyway

BD's own base rate at issue — we sit -18pts from it

calls table · base_rate

MISS

resolved 2026-09-05

0 days with a confirmed block

resolver: OONI (ooni.org) confirmed_blocked > 0

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if OONI (ooni.org) confirmed_blocked > 0 records at least 1 qualifying event inside the window.

The resolver is external — OONI (ooni.org) confirmed_blocked > 0 — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-08-22.

History

Every BD network call

2026-08-29call #131140% · resolves 2026-09-12 2026-08-28call #1207said 50% · MISS 2026-08-27call #1103said 50% · MISS 2026-08-26call #999said 50% · MISS 2026-08-25call #894said 50% · MISS 2026-08-24call #250said 50% · MISS 2026-08-23call #94said 50% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.