Call #2962 · PK · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

PKR depreciates 0.25% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 277.426.

Made 2026-09-22, resolving 2026-10-06 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

23%

what we said

stated on 2026-09-22, before the window opened

calls table · probability

25%

how often it happens anyway

PK's own base rate at issue — we sit -2pts from it

calls table · base_rate

OPEN

not yet resolved

resolves 2026-10-06

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (277.425913) by at least 0.25%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-22.

History

Every PK currency call

2026-09-10call #218318% · resolves 2026-09-24 2026-09-09call #211718% · resolves 2026-09-23 2026-09-08call #2037said 18% · HIT 2026-09-07call #1971said 18% · HIT 2026-09-06call #1906said 18% · HIT 2026-09-05call #1841said 17% · MISS 2026-09-02call #1648said 16% · MISS 2026-09-01call #1583said 16% · MISS 2026-08-31call #1518said 16% · MISS 2026-08-30call #1453said 17% · MISS 2026-08-29call #1388said 17% · MISS 2026-08-28call #1284said 17% · MISS 2026-08-27call #1180said 17% · MISS 2026-08-26call #1076said 17% · MISS 2026-08-25call #972said 15% · MISS 2026-08-24call #328said 15% · MISS 2026-08-23call #223said 15% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.