Call #2466 · AF · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

AFN depreciates 1.97% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 64.4255.

Made 2026-09-15, resolving 2026-09-29 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

29%
what we said
stated on 2026-09-15, before the window opened
calls table · probability
25%
how often it happens anyway
AF's own base rate at issue — we sit +3pts from it
calls table · base_rate
OPEN
not yet resolved
resolves 2026-09-29
resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)
The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (64.425496) by at least 1.97%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-15.

History

Every AF currency call

2026-09-14call #240128% · resolves 2026-09-28 2026-09-13call #233628% · resolves 2026-09-27 2026-09-12call #227229% · resolves 2026-09-26 2026-09-11call #220829% · resolves 2026-09-25 2026-09-10call #214229% · resolves 2026-09-24 2026-09-09call #207629% · resolves 2026-09-23 2026-09-08call #199629% · resolves 2026-09-22 2026-09-07call #193129% · resolves 2026-09-21 2026-09-06call #186628% · resolves 2026-09-20 2026-09-05call #180128% · resolves 2026-09-19 2026-09-04call #173729% · resolves 2026-09-18 2026-09-03call #167328% · resolves 2026-09-17 2026-09-02call #160827% · resolves 2026-09-16 2026-09-01call #1543said 26% · MISS 2026-08-31call #1478said 25% · MISS 2026-08-30call #1413said 26% · MISS 2026-08-29call #1348said 24% · MISS 2026-08-28call #1244said 23% · MISS 2026-08-27call #1140said 23% · MISS 2026-08-26call #1036said 24% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.