Call #2068 · IRAN · seismicity_window

USGS records at least 1 earthquake of magnitude 5.00 or greater in the IRAN region within 14 days.

Made 2026-09-08, resolving 2026-09-22 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

45%

what we said

stated on 2026-09-08, before the window opened

calls table · probability

45%

how often it happens anyway

IRAN's own base rate at issue — we sit +0pts from it

calls table · base_rate

OPEN

not yet resolved

resolves 2026-09-22

resolver: USGS fdsnws event count

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if USGS fdsnws event count records at least 1 qualifying event inside the window.

The resolver is external — USGS fdsnws event count — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-09-08.

History

Every IRAN seismicity_window call

2026-08-24call #779said 45% · MISS

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.