Call #203 · IQ · Currency depreciation (FX reference rates)

IQD depreciates 0.25% or more against USD at any point within 14 days, from 1296.67.

Made 2026-08-23, resolving 2026-09-06 — a 14-day window, fixed before the outcome was known. Every field on this page was frozen when the call was made.

18%

what we said

stated on 2026-08-23, before the window opened

calls table · probability

26%

how often it happens anyway

IQ's own base rate at issue — we sit -8pts from it

calls table · base_rate

HIT

resolved 2026-09-06

peak depreciation 1.23% (stored as basis points)

resolver: fx_rates (daily USD reference rates)

The criterion

Frozen at issue

Hit if the currency's peak rate against USD inside the window exceeds the issue-day reference (1296.670454) by at least 0.25%. Peak, not endpoint: a devaluation that retraces still happened.

The resolver is external — fx_rates (daily USD reference rates) — and the daily snapshot of this call in ledger-snapshots/ carries GitHub's timestamps. Diff any two dated files to verify nothing above moved after 2026-08-23.

History

Every IQ currency call

2026-09-10call #216322% · resolves 2026-09-24 2026-09-09call #209722% · resolves 2026-09-23 2026-09-08call #201722% · resolves 2026-09-22 2026-08-25call #952said 18% · HIT 2026-08-24call #308said 18% · HIT

← The full ledger · the same data as JSON

Daily snapshots of this book are committed to the public repository — ledger-snapshots/ — so the stated probabilities and thresholds carry GitHub's timestamps, not ours. A reader can verify no call moved between issuance and resolution without trusting us.