NexusWatch · Yemen · 2026-09-12

🎯 Today's Call

The Ledger — 97 resolved today, 13 hit · OONI Brier 0.059 over 262, -2% vs base rate · FX Brier 0.173 over 458, +1% vs base rate · 954 open, next resolves 2026-09-13

97 calls settled against external ground truth: 13 hit, 84 miss. 45 due calls remain unresolved — held, never scored as a miss by default; each row on the ledger carries its reason.

SE (SE): MISS — we said 17% (base rate 27%) for currency depreciation by 2026-09-12

Singapore (SG): 18% chance the currency depreciates ≥0.53% peak-vs-issue by 2026-09-22 — -10pts vs its base rate of 28%

📊 Top Signal

Investigating a Murder: Public Records Uncover New Clues in Chinatown Cold Case (Bellingcat). This is the mechanical edition — the model draft was withheld today, so we give you the lead as the wire carried it rather than a synthesis.

🌍 The Board

Movers

• Sudan 89 (▲+6) — driver not identified in today's data.
• Afghanistan 88 (▲+6) — driver not identified in today's data.
• Iran 85 (▲+7) — driver not identified in today's data.

Crises

• Yemen — CII 92 →.
• Sudan — CII 89 ↑6.
• Afghanistan — CII 88 ↑6.
• Iran — CII 85 ↑7.

Markets

S&P 500 ETF (SPY): $764.29 (+0.85%) | Gold ETF (GLD): $398.77 (+0.61%) | Crude oil ETF (USO): $154.90 (-2.20%) | Nat gas ETF (UNG): $10.17 (-0.20%) | Energy sector ETF (XLE): $65.14 (+0.32%) | Dollar index ETF (UUP): $28.07 (+0.14%) | Treasury bond ETF (TLT): $80.87 (+0.11%)

What would change our mind: a confirmed OONI blocking event, or an FX reference-rate move past a stored threshold, in any country on the open book above — the resolvers check daily.

🙊 What We're Not Saying

• This is the mechanical edition: the model draft was withheld by a publish gate, so today carries data without narrative.
• Every mover above is unexplained by construction — we do not attribute causes mechanically.
• The conflict headline feed returned nothing today; that gap is a gap.

🧨 The Long Fuse

Iran has risen from 15 to 22.3 over 7 days. If the direction holds through month-end, it moves onto the crisis list.