NexusWatch · Yemen · 2026-09-11

🎯 Today's Call

The Ledger — 98 resolved today, 17 hit · OONI Brier 0.060 over 230, -3% vs base rate · FX Brier 0.188 over 393, -0% vs base rate · 992 open, next resolves 2026-09-12

98 calls settled against external ground truth: 17 hit, 81 miss. 43 due calls remain unresolved — held, never scored as a miss by default; each row on the ledger carries its reason.

SE (SE): MISS — we said 17% (base rate 28%) for currency depreciation by 2026-09-11

Singapore (SG): 18% chance the currency depreciates ≥0.53% peak-vs-issue by 2026-09-22 — -10pts vs its base rate of 28%

📊 Top Signal

Investigating a Murder: Public Records Uncover New Clues in Chinatown Cold Case (Bellingcat). This is the mechanical edition — the model draft was withheld today, so we give you the lead as the wire carried it rather than a synthesis.

🌍 The Board

Movers

• Afghanistan 88 (▼-3) — driver not identified in today's data.

Crises

• Yemen — CII 92 →.
• Syria — CII 90 →.
• Sudan — CII 89 →.
• Iran — CII 85 →.

Markets

S&P 500 ETF (SPY): $757.83 (-0.60%) | Gold ETF (GLD): $396.36 (-1.73%) | Crude oil ETF (USO): $158.38 (+5.61%) | Nat gas ETF (UNG): $10.19 (+0.99%) | Energy sector ETF (XLE): $64.93 (-0.58%) | Dollar index ETF (UUP): $28.03 (+0.18%) | Treasury bond ETF (TLT): $80.78 (-1.16%)

What would change our mind: a confirmed OONI blocking event, or an FX reference-rate move past a stored threshold, in any country on the open book above — the resolvers check daily.

🙊 What We're Not Saying

• This is the mechanical edition: the model draft was withheld by a publish gate, so today carries data without narrative.
• Every mover above is unexplained by construction — we do not attribute causes mechanically.
• The conflict headline feed returned nothing today; that gap is a gap.

🧨 The Long Fuse

Iran has fallen from 20 to 15 over 7 days. If the direction holds through month-end, it moves onto the crisis list — or off it.