NexusWatch · Yemen · 2026-09-10

🎯 Today's Call

The Ledger — 97 resolved today, 21 hit · OONI Brier 0.062 over 197, -3% vs base rate · FX Brier 0.203 over 328, -1% vs base rate · 1026 open, next resolves 2026-09-11

97 calls settled against external ground truth: 21 hit, 76 miss. 37 due calls remain unresolved — held, never scored as a miss by default; each row on the ledger carries its reason.

SE (SE): MISS — we said 18% (base rate 28%) for currency depreciation by 2026-09-10

Singapore (SG): 18% chance the currency depreciates ≥0.53% peak-vs-issue by 2026-09-22 — -10pts vs its base rate of 28%

📊 Top Signal

Investigating a Murder: Public Records Uncover New Clues in Chinatown Cold Case (Bellingcat). This is the mechanical edition — the model draft was withheld today, so we give you the lead as the wire carried it rather than a synthesis.

🌍 The Board

Movers

• Afghanistan 88 (▲+3) — driver not identified in today's data.
• North Korea 81 (▼-3) — driver not identified in today's data.

Crises

• Yemen — CII 92 →.
• Sudan — CII 89 →.
• Afghanistan — CII 88 ↑3.
• Iran — CII 85 →.

Markets

S&P 500 ETF (SPY): $762.40 (-0.46%) | Gold ETF (GLD): $403.35 (+0.91%) | Crude oil ETF (USO): $149.97 (+2.70%) | Nat gas ETF (UNG): $10.09 (-3.54%) | Energy sector ETF (XLE): $65.31 (+0.83%) | Dollar index ETF (UUP): $27.98 (-0.04%) | Treasury bond ETF (TLT): $81.73 (-0.57%)

What would change our mind: a confirmed OONI blocking event, or an FX reference-rate move past a stored threshold, in any country on the open book above — the resolvers check daily.

🙊 What We're Not Saying

• This is the mechanical edition: the model draft was withheld by a publish gate, so today carries data without narrative.
• Every mover above is unexplained by construction — we do not attribute causes mechanically.
• The conflict headline feed returned nothing today; that gap is a gap.

🧨 The Long Fuse

Yemen has risen from 0 to 8 over 7 days. If the direction holds through month-end, it moves onto the crisis list.