NexusWatch · Sudan · 2026-05-24
☕ Good Morning
Happy Sunday. Here's what mattered this week — and what we're watching heading into Monday.
Iran dropped 15 points on the CII over seven days, the sharpest decompression we've seen since our platform launched. That's the headline. But the real story is what's not happening: no corresponding cooldown in Sudan, Ukraine, or Yemen. The risk map is flattening, not shrinking. We'll explain what that means below.
📍 The Week That Was
1. Iran's CII collapses from 68 to 53 — but uncertainty remains high Iran's instability score fell 15 points over the week (68 → 53), driven by a sharp drop in market volatility and diminishing conflict signals. The trigger: no major escalation materialized after last week's U.S.-Israeli strikes on IRGC infrastructure. But this isn't stability — it's pause. Bellingcat published new analysis titled "Make Iran Ungovernable," tracking systematic targeting of police infrastructure across Iranian cities. The physical damage is real; the political consequences are lagged. We're treating this as a decompression event, not a resolution.
2. Russia spiked to 65 mid-week, then settled at 59 Russia's CII hit 65 on Wednesday following a large-scale missile and drone barrage on Ukrainian energy infrastructure that killed four and injured dozens. The attack was framed by Moscow as retaliation for a Ukrainian strike on Luhansk earlier in the week. By Friday, the score had retreated to 59 as markets absorbed the escalation without broader contagion. This volatility pattern — sharp spikes followed by fast normalization — has been Russia's signature all year. Governance and market risk remain elevated (15 and 14 respectively), but conflict risk is plateauing around 12.
3. Sudan stays anchored at 61 — the week's most stable high-risk country Sudan held at CII 61 for all seven days, the highest score globally and the flattest trajectory in our dataset. Conflict risk sits at 19 (second only to Palestine and Ukraine), governance at 12, and market risk at 20 — the highest market-risk score we track. No single event drove the week; this is structural instability. The RSF-SAF war grinds on with no resolution in sight, humanitarian corridors remain closed, and commodity flows through Port Sudan are unreliable. Sudan is the risk everyone's numb to — and that's the risk.
4. Bellingcat exposes India-to-West Africa opioid pipeline New investigation traced 300 million tapentadol pills shipped from India to Nigeria, Ghana, and Senegal over 18 months. The supply chain runs through loosely regulated pharmaceutical exporters in Gujarat and Maharashtra, with shipments often mislabeled as "general pharmaceuticals." This matters beyond health policy: opioid economies destabilize governance in fragile states. We're watching Nigeria (CII: 38) and Ghana (CII: 16) for signs that this influx correlates with rising organized crime or protests.
5. DRC landslides at coltan mines under M23 control Bellingcat verified deadly landslides at artisanal coltan mines in North Kivu, in territory controlled by the M23 rebel group. Satellite imagery from May 18–20 shows fresh earth displacement consistent with mass-casualty mining collapses. Coltan (used in EV batteries and semiconductors) is a revenue source for M23, which is widely understood to be backed by Rwanda. The landslides won't move the DRC's CII (currently 43), but they underscore the human cost of the critical minerals supply chain — a story that will matter more as EV production scales.
6. Bangladesh up 3 points to CII 11 — the week's biggest positive mover Bangladesh jumped from 8 to 11, driven by a localized uptick in political protests and labor strikes in Dhaka and Chittagong. This is still low on our scale, but it's the largest single-day increase we saw this week outside conflict zones. Context: Bangladesh is navigating post-Hasina political realignment, and garment sector labor disputes are heating up ahead of wage negotiations in June. Not a crisis — but worth flagging for supply chain watchers.
7. Secret Service incident near White House ends with suspect dead A gunman opened fire near the White House perimeter on Thursday; Secret Service returned fire, killing the suspect. No officers or bystanders injured. Details remain sparse, but early reports suggest the individual acted alone and had no known affiliations with organized groups. This doesn't move the U.S. CII (currently 8), but it does fit a pattern: lone-actor violence near high-security government sites has ticked up globally over the past 18 months. We're tracking this as a symptom, not a signal.
🌍 CII Movers: Weekly View
Iran 53 (▼-15) — Sharpest decompression event of the year; markets calmed, but infrastructure targeting continues Russia 59 (▲+6 peak, -1 net) — Spiked mid-week on Ukraine missile barrage, then normalized Syria 56 (▲+4 peak) — Brief surge Thursday (CII 60) on reports of renewed shelling near Idlib; faded by Saturday Bangladesh 11 (▲+3) — Labor unrest in Dhaka and Chittagong; garment sector tensions rising Afghanistan 55 (▲+1) — Marginal uptick driven by disaster risk (earthquake activity in Badakhshan province)
Sudan, Yemen, Palestine, Ukraine, South Sudan, and Somalia were perfectly flat all week. That's not calm — that's chronic.
⛽ Energy & Commodities: Weekly Wrap
Crude settled the week at $140.92 (-1.14% today, but up ~3% week-over-week). Natural gas fell -3.44% to $10.94, continuing a two-week slide as European storage levels normalize ahead of summer.
The big story: oil stayed elevated despite Iran decompression. Why? Because the risk premium is baked into three chokepoints, not one country. Hormuz (adjacent to Iran and Yemen), Bab el-Mandeb (adjacent to Yemen and Somalia), and Suez (adjacent to Sudan and Libya) remain under structural threat. As long as Yemen (CII 57), Sudan (61), and Somalia (52) stay hot, traders aren't betting on relief.
Gold dropped -0.76% to $413.82 — first weekly decline in a month. That tracks with Iran's cooldown and Russia's post-spike normalization. But the USD index only nudged up +0.14%, which tells us safe-haven demand is rotating, not disappearing. Treasury flows are the tell: +0.55% this week. Capital is moving to bonds, not equities.
Energy sector (XLE) up +0.61%, outpacing the S&P (+0.39%). That's a defensive posture — investors pricing in persistent energy risk, not growth optimism.
📊 Market Signal
The S&P's 0.39% gain this week was the narrowest we've seen since April. The entire move came Monday and Tuesday; Wednesday through Friday were essentially flat. That's a market waiting for the next data point.
What got priced in: Iran decompression, Russia stabilization, no major supply disruptions. What surprised: Sudan and Yemen didn't cool alongside Iran. The risk map is flattening, not improving. Markets are treating this as a tactical pause, not a strategic shift.
Gold's pullback and Treasury strength suggest institutional flows are moving toward fixed income. Equity sentiment is neutral-to-cautious. The VIX (not in our dataset, but worth mentioning) has been range-bound between 18–22 for three weeks — a sign that traders see volatility as the baseline, not the exception.
One more thing: crude's resilience above $140 despite Iran's CII drop tells us the "war premium" is no longer about Iran — it's about the chokepoints. As long as Hormuz, Bab el-Mandeb, and Suez are flanked by high-CII countries, oil isn't coming down.
🔭 The Week Ahead
Monday, May 25: U.S. markets closed for Memorial Day — expect thin liquidity globally. Watch for any off-hours moves in crude or Asian equity markets.
Tuesday, May 26: OPEC+ policy call scheduled (unconfirmed). If Saudi Arabia signals supply adjustments in response to elevated prices, we could see crude move 3–5%. Iran's production outlook will be subtext.
Wednesday, May 27: EU foreign ministers meet in Brussels. Ukraine aid package and Russia sanctions enforcement on the agenda. Any signals on frozen Russian assets or new arms commitments could bump Russia's CII back toward 62–64.
Thursday, May 28: Bangladesh garment sector wage negotiations begin. If talks stall, expect labor strikes to intensify in Dhaka. Supply chain teams with Bangladesh exposure: flag this.
Friday, May 29: ISW (Institute for the Study of War) expected to release updated Ukraine battlefield assessment. If territorial control shifts meaningfully in Donetsk or Luhansk, Ukraine's CII could move ±3 points.
All week: Keep an eye on Sudan. It's been flat at 61 for seven straight days, which historically precedes either a sharp drop (if ceasefire talks gain traction) or a spike (if RSF-SAF clashes escalate near Khartoum). We don't have good data predicting which way this breaks — but it will break.
That's the week. Coffee's done. Let's see what Monday brings.